29 September, 2026

Bond yields climb as resilient US data keeps rates elevated into year-end

Summary

Highlights

In US markets, after the 10- and 30- year yields, the 5-year maturity also moved above the of 5% threshold, the highest level in two decades.
The move is global. German bonds also rose, with the 10-year reaching 3.6%, its highest level since 2009, while the Japanese 10-year climbed above 3%.
Interest rate levels are becoming increasingly attractive, creating opportunities to add portfolio income through a diversified and dynamic approach.

2026.09.07-Weekly-Market-Directions-Fig1-Header1.jpg

In this edition

Bond yields moved higher again, pushing the average yield on global government debt* close to 4%, the highest level since 2007. The latest move was driven by strong US activity indicators (PMIs), in both manufacturing and services, which confirmed the resilience of the US economy, as recently highlighted by Fed Chair Warsh. Higher oil prices, with Brent rising above $105 a barrel, and a weaker US debt auction have also added pressure. Markets also continue to factor in a more hawkish Fed and heavy government and corporate borrowing.

Taken together, these factors are consistent with the view that the investment cycle and elevated funding needs are keeping yields structurally high, while Fed repricing and oil uncertainty are better explaining the recent moves, with inflation expectations well anchored over the long term.

Key dates

30 Sep

China PMI, JP Industrial Production, US ADP Employment Report and PCE Price Index

1 Oct

Japan Tankan, EZ Manufacturing PMI, US ISM Manufacturing

2 Oct

Japan CPI, EZ CPI, US Non-Farm Payrolls and Durable Goods Orders

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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