The GIV elaborates on the latest views, convictions and outlook of our Global CIOs, Investment Platforms and the Amundi Investment Institute.
Central banks and AI in the driving seat
In September, global bond markets came under pressure amid inflation concerns and hawkish shifts by central banks, while equity markets remained relatively calm, supported by strong economic data and earnings, alongside renewed optimism around AI.
More nuanced positioning
September saw major central banks take action. After a period of hawkish rhetoric, the Fed finally rose rates, alongside similar moves by the ECB and the Bank of Japan. Markets reacted by lifting interest rate expectations and pushing up short-term rates. On top of this, the long end continued to come under pressure amid economic resilience and issuance pressures, which have pushed real rates to attractive levels.
Earnings support equity opportunities
Equity markets were resilient amid hawkish central bank actions, inflation fears and rising bond yields. Indeed, these factors were partly offset by renewed enthusiasm on AI. Looking ahead, as earnings remain strong, the key question is how far equity valuations could be compressed in a rising-yield environment. Hence, our focus is on resilient, non-disrupted business models with balance sheet strength.
Diversification, selection and carry
The broader macro view remains mildly pro-risk, with a preference for regional diversification, selectivity and carry. While growth remains resilient but uneven, inflation appears more persistent and is starting to look more broad-based. Central banks are reacting to this, with markets beginning to price in more rate hikes.
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