Key Takeaways

EM equities have climbed to new highs despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. The main vulnerability lies in energy: further disruption to the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil and gas transit route, would lift energy prices and worsen inflation. A sustained shock would also complicate fiscal policy, especially in countries with limited buffers. Yet, despite uncertainty over how long energy flows could be affected, EM equities have remained resilient, supported by regional dispersion, the tech rally and earnings growth, which is expected to accelerate well above that of developed markets.

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