27 March, 2026

Iran, Oil And Market Scenarios: Allocation Impacts

Mapping the fallout: Iran, oil, and global markets

Summary

Key takeaways

The Iran conflict has prompted us to make targeted adjustments to our macro assumptions, rather than fully change our scenarios.

Overall, we have marginally upgraded our global inflation outlook, while growth adjustments remain minimal at this stage.

Europe is set to be the most affected, given its higher sensitivity to energy prices. The current energy shock is expected to push inflation modestly above target in 2026, though growth should remain relatively resilient under a temporary shock scenario. Latin America stands out as a relative winner, benefiting from its position as a major oil producer, while the GCC is currently the most exposed.

We have also revised our expectations for central bank policy. The stagflationary impulse from the conflict will reshape the growth and inflation risk trade-off, creating a policy dilemma for central banks globally. Overall, we expect policy rates to remain largely stable, as central banks adopt a wait-and-see stance, acknowledge stagflationary pressures, and postpone the anticipated rate cuts.

Beyond the immediate impact, we are also assessing the potential i plications should the oil shock prove more prolonged.

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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Iran, Oil And Market Scenarios: Allocation Impacts

Summary

Key takeaways

Read more

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

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