31 March, 2026

Middle East conflict affects investor sentiment

Summary

Highlights

The Eurozone March PMI survey fell during the previous month, indicating businesses are getting worried about the Middle East conflict.
The composite PMI remained above the 50 expansion threshold, but it was the lowest in the past ten months.
Robust household savings, combined with new policy measures, should help cushion the economic impact across Europe.

In this edition

The preliminary composite Eurozone PMI (50.5) signalled a deceleration in economic activity in March. While the reading remains above the 50 threshold, it is the lowest since May 2025. Specifically, the manufacturing component rose, while the services component declined from February’s level. We believe businesses are pricing in some of the risks posed by the Middle East conflict: higher inflation, disrupted energy supplies and growth concerns. Looking ahead, we believe the crisis is likely to add stagflationary pressure to the economy through higher energy prices. If oil and gas prices remain elevated for a prolonged period, we may see inflation seep into other parts of the economy. As a result, the ECB’s task will become more complicated as the central bank tries to balance inflationary pressures with a nascent economic recovery. We expect the ECB to pause in the near term before making any further policy decisions.

Key dates

30 Mar

Europe Confidence, India and South Korea Industrial Production, Brazil CPI

31 Mar

EA CPI, Japan CPI, US Consumer confidence, JOLTS data; China Manufacturing PMI

3 Apr

US Nonfarm Payrolls, Turkey CPI

Read the full article on the Amundi Research center

Welcome to Amundi Canada

To provide you with the most relevant information, we have developed an interface to present the full range of products available for your investor profile and country of residence.

1
Profile
2
Cookies

Your profile: Institutional investor

Visit this website if you invest as, or select investments on behalf of, an institution such as a sovereign entity, a pension fund or an insurer.

Choose your language:

You are entering this website as an “accredited investor”. It is important that you read this page before proceeding further.

This website is provided by Amundi Canada Inc. (“Amundi Canada”). Amundi Canada is registered under NRD number 27710 as: (1) a portfolio manager in the provinces of Alberta, British Columbia, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Québec; (2) an exempt market dealer in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba, New Brunswick, Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, Ontario, Prince Edward Island, Québec and Saskatchewan; and (3) an investment fund manager in Ontario and Québec. Its head office is located at 2000 McGill College Avenue, Suite 1920, Montreal (Québec), H3A 3H3.

You are connecting to this site as an “accredited investor”, as defined in National Instrument 45-106 Prospectus Exemptions, and you are either residing in Canada or you are accessing the website from Canada. If you are not an “accredited investor”, we invite you to leave this website. Furthermore, if you are from a country with a dedicated “Amundi” website which is not this website, you are invited to access the site for your country.

More particularly, this site is NOT intended for citizens or residents of the United States of America or “U.S. Persons”, as defined in “Regulation S” of the Securities and Exchange Commission under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933. The investment products described on this website are not registered under U.S. federal securities laws or any other relevant U.S. state laws. Consequently, no investment product may be offered or sold directly or indirectly in the United States of America (including in U.S. territories and possessions), to or to the benefit of residents and citizens of the United States of America and to “U.S. Persons”. If you are a “US Person”, you are not authorized to access this site and you are invited to log onto amundi.com/usinvestors.

The information available on this website is provided for informational purposes only. None of information contained on this website constitutes an offer to purchase or a solicitation to sell securities, investment advice on the purchase or sale of a security, an offer or solicitation by Amundi Canada or any of its affiliates to provide investment advice or a financial, legal, fiscal or investment service or to buy or sell securities or other financial instruments. The information contained on this website originates from Amundi Canada or from sources believed by Amundi Canada to be reliable. Amundi Canada has not independently verified such information or otherwise made any related investigation. Neither Amundi Canada, nor its affiliates, partners, principals, directors, officers, agents, employees and representatives can warrant or declare, implicitly or explicitly, that the information provided herein is exact, complete or up to date. Amundi Canada disclaims all liability relating to the information on this website.

The information contained on this website is not meant to be distributed or used by any person or entity in a jurisdiction where such distribution or use would be contrary to legal or regulatory requirements, or would require that Amundi Canada or its affiliates have to satisfy registration or prospectus requirements in such jurisdiction.

The information shall not, without prior written approval of Amundi Canada, be copied, reproduced, modified, or distributed, to any third person or entity in any country.

Investment involves risk. Past performances do not guarantee or indication of future returns. The value of an investment in any security or financial product may fluctuate due, namely, to market conditions, forecasts on the economy, stock market, bond market or economic trends.

This information is exclusively intended for “Professional” investors within the meaning Directive 2014/65/EU of the European Parliament and the Council of 15 Many 2014 on Markets in Financial Instruments (as amended) (MIFID II). It is not intended for the general public or for non-professional individual investors within the meaning of all local regulations, or for “US Persons”, as defined in the Securities and Exchange Commission’s “Regulation S” under the 1933 U.S. Securities Act. This non-contractual information does not under any circumstances constitute an offer to buy, a solicitation to sell, or advice to invest in financial instruments of Amundi or one of its affiliates (“Amundi”). Investing involves risks. The performance of the strategies is not guaranteed. Past performance does not predict future results. Investors may lose all or part of the capital originally invested. There is no guarantee that ESG considerations will enhance a strategy’s performance. The decision of investors to invest in the promoted strategies should take into account all characteristics of objectives of the strategies. All investors should seek professional advice prior to any investment decision, in order to determine the risks associated with the investment and its suitability. Amundi assumes no liability, either direct or indirect, resulting from the use of any of the information contained in this document, and shall not under any circumstances be held liable for any decisions taken on the basis of this information. This information may not be copied, reproduced, modified, translated or distributed, without the prior written approval of Amundi. This information is provided to you based on sources that Amundi considers to be reliable at the date of publication, and it may be modified at any time without prior notice.